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SPF's NFL Draft First Round Log (Live All Day!!)

Posted: Apr 26, 2008

                                                    

 

2:15 PM THE DRAFT IS NEAR

The Draft is only a little less than an hour away, and we here at SPF are not exactly happy with this new start time.  How much coverage on ESPN can we watch?  Actually, quite a lot.

We are trying something new this year by running an NFL Draft Log all day long.

Let's start by looking at each team and doing a quick assessment.  As always, SPF won't focus only on pieces of the puzzle from a roster standpoint.  We will be looking mainly at how the Draft will be used by our SPF teams to improve their overall identity and connection with the fans in the Footprint.

Ok, here goes....

Miami Dolphins (1) - The worst team in the league had one of the most drastic makeovers.  After their 1-15 debacle, the Dolphins organization received a complete and utter fumigation.

Coach Cam Cameron was fired.

GM Randy Mueller was fired.

Owner Wayne Huizenga sold half of his team to Stephen Ross and will sell the remainder within the next few years.

Enter Bill Parcells.  He brought in Tony Sparano as his coach and Jeff Ireland as his GM plucking them from the Cowboys organization that he helped build when he was their coach.

So far, the Dolphins are looking like they are finally under competent leadership after years of turmoil.

They've already signed Jake Long so the drama of who's #1 is over.  Expect the Dolphins to be a major player in the draft with two second rounders and a third rounder.  Parcells likes players that went to major college programs so SPF is expecting the Dolphins to draft names we all know.

St Louis Rams (2) - The first piece of good news after a horrible season is that new owner Chip Rosenbloom, the son of Georgia Frontiere who passed away earlier this year, has come out and announced his commitment to St Louis.  That's great news for this fine city and sports market.

The Rams really aren't that far away.  The NFC West is a soft division that is waiting for any team to step up and overtake the Seahawks.  The key off season move was bringing in Al Saunders as OC.  Bulger and Co. will be much happier with Saunders' high octane passing tendencies over Scott Linehan's vanilla offense.

The word is right now that the Rams are taking DE Chris Long from UVa.  Having a pass rush is critical in today's NFL, and Long is expected to be one of the best DEs in this year's draft. 

The Rams have had too many blown drafts in the last 5 years.  They need this one to count.

Atlanta Falcons (3) - The Falcons were an Arthur Blank sale of the team short of Miami's dramatic change, but Atlanta starts anew this year.

The concern for Falcons fans is how they will balance Arthur Blank's sense of publicity over new GM Thomas Dimitroff's and new HC Mike Smith's combined sensibility of substance (ie stout defense, good running game) over style (flashy players).

Already, SPF is a little concerned.  ESPN is reporting that the Falcons will take BC QB Matt Ryan at #3.  This smacks of Arthur Blank's influence. 

Every year one or two QBs are thrust into the limelight because QB is the glory position.  Most years, these QBs aren't worth a top 20 pick, let alone a top 5 pick.

Let's look at the last 5 NFL Drafts and the QBs taken in the first round

2003
1. Carson Palmer (Bengals)
7. Byron Leftwich (Jaguars)
19. Kyle Boller (Baltimore)
22. Rex Grossman (Chicago)

Other than Carson Palmer, who is solid to very good, the rest of these picks have been total busts.  The worst thing is that Leftwich, Boller, and Grossman all came to very good teams and none of them could even play in a "game managing" style.

2004
1. Eli Manning (Giants)
4. Philip Rivers (Chargers)
11. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
22. JP Losman (Buffalo)

This class boasts to Super Bowl winners (Manning and Roethlisberger) so they appear deserving of their selections.  Rivers has been fine on a good San Diego team, but they should have kept Drew Brees.  Losman may be cut before next season.

2005
1. Alex Smith (49ers)
24. Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
25. Jason Campbell (Redskins)

Alex Smith is the poster boy for not taking a QB high just because its a position of need for your team.  The 49ers wanted to start fresh and went with Alex Smith out of Utah.  So far, Smith and the 49ers haven't done a thing.

Campbell took the Redskins to the playoffs, but he hasn't fully developed.  Rodgers gets his chance to lead a very good Packers team now that Brett Favre has retired.

2006
3. Vince Young (Titans)
10. Matt Leinhart (Cardinals)
11. Jay Cutler (Broncos)

Young has been a great pick for the Titans, but he still needs to show he can win in the playoffs.  Leinhart has been a bust despite the media giving him pass after pass.  Cutler has been decent, but the Broncos haven't made the playoffs in either of his two years.

2007
1. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders)
22. Brady Quinn (Browns)

Russell held out which hurt his progress, but he did show some decent ability.  Quinn may never start for the Browns as the formerly unknown Derek Anderson beat him out.

So, out of 16 first round QBs taken, only two have won Super Bowls.  Four have gone to the playoffs (although Byron Leftwich lost his job in Jax last year).  The rest have not been able to establish themselves or their teams.

When you add this to the issue that top ten draft picks use up huge cap space, teams had better be sure when they take a QB.

The final issue is that missing on a QB will haunt a team for years.  If a team drafts at any other position they can utilize that skill even if the players isn't an "every down" player.  QBs either play and lead your team or they are on the bench.  This puts huge pressure on an organization to test the QB quickly.

By picking Matt Ryan, the Falcons are committing to having him start by the last quarter of the 2008 season.  Considering that Mike Smith has a defensive background and there are holes all over the Falcons offense, this doesn't look like a good environment to develop a young QB.  All the first round success stories of the last five years (Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Campbell, Young, Palmer) all came to teams with veteran offensive talent and/or good defenses.  The Falcons have neither.

SPF hopes that the Falcons are floating the Ryan rumor to create another trade.  Looking at the draft, there are several QBs that should be available by the time that Atlanta picks again in the second round.  Brian Brohm would have been a top 5 QB last season, but now is down because Louisville had a bad season.  Brohm is still a good player and the Falcons could easily get him at the top of the second round.

Last point on Ryan - the Dolphins need a QB just as bad as the Falcons do, and they never gave consideration to him.  Parcells and his people know that picking at the top of the draft only means that you will be spending a lot of money on whomever you pick.  All you really want to do is to make sure that you get value.  Top 5 QBs rarely give you that value.

Cincinnati Bengals (9) - The Bengals will be interesting today because Chad Johnson might be in play.  Johnson's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, just told ESPN that he wants to see him traded today.  Other than that, Marvin Lewis needs to get some high character, defensive talent to take the pressure off of Carson Palmer.

Carolina Panthers (13) - The Panthers need to get younger and faster.  They also need a few more offensive playmakers.  This may be John Fox's last chance to save his job past next year.

Houston Texans (18) - The Texans need to keep getting better and younger.  They need a RB in the worst way, but there are several good ones that can be had in later rounds.  Expect them to go with O-line or LB.  This draft may be critical in the Texans' effort to get better than every other team in the AFC South, all of which are well ahead of them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20) - The Bucs and Jon Gruden are a veteran team that needs several pieces to build upon last year's NFC South title.  SPF won't be surprised to see the Bucs trade for Jason Taylor to bolster their defense.

Washington Redskins (21) - Things are quiet in DC, but SPF expects Daniel Snyder to make some kind of a splash. 

Dallas Cowboys (22 & 28) - Somehow, Jerry Jones will do something interesting.  If he likes a player closer to the top of the round, he will deal one of both of these picks.

Tennessee Titans (24) - The Titans need to get Vince Young some more offensive help.  This team is very close, but they are in a brutal division.  A good draft is critical.

Jacksonville Jaguars (26) - Jacksonville has everything but a consistently effective pass rush.  If the Bucs don't get Taylor from the Fins, the Jags should.

 2:25pm  MATT RYAN UPDATE!!!

"Matt Ryan is the only franchise QB in this draft and next year's draft."  This bit of utter insanity just came out of the mouth of Steve Young.  Young embodies the insufferable nature of ESPN's coverage.  Young, a former QB, must (by ESPN edict) pump up every QB in the draft.  Has Young ever heard of Tim Tebow?

Young also said that the Falcons have to take Ryan to make their fans forget Michael Vick.  How bad are things when Keyshawn Johnson is the voice of reason.  Keyshawn correctly pointed out that Michael Vick was an icon in Atlanta, and Matt Ryan won't be able to replace him so that should not even be a goal.

Now, Kirk Herbstreit (another former QB) is hyping Ryan.  We're sick of him already and he hasn't taken a snap.  "It Factor?" come on, Herbie.  Ron Jaworski (another former QB) is blabbing about intangibles.

Mike Tirico just said that "we all know that Matt Ryan is clearly the best QB in this group."  Let's write that one down and check back in a few years.

2:45pm TRIBAL FEVER FAVORITES

Here's a few names we are going to be following.  All were impact players who helped define their college teams:

(In no particular order)

Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Andre Woodson QB Kentucky
Erik Ainge QB Tenneseee
Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
Early Doucet WR LSU
Limas Sweed WR Texas
Chris Long DE Virginia
Brandon Albert OG Virginia
Brian Brohm QB Louisville
Steve Slaton RB West Virginia
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Kevin Smith UCF

(For the record, 21 of last year's 32 first round picks were from Tribal Fever schools.)

3:25 PM MATT RYAN UPDATE II

Well, the Falcons picked Ryan.  After busting on Steve Young, he just clarified his position on Ryan, and it made more sense while being totally disturbing if you are a Falcon fan.

Young's point is that the spectre Michael Vick still hovers over the Falcons.  He said that if the Falcons didn't pick Ryan at #3, then Vick would become a huge distraction around the team when he is released from prison in 18 months.

So, the idea is to pick Ryan now in hopes of making him a Peyton Manning-like presence to your fans?  This only works if you are picking a consensus stud like Manning.  Ryan is not that guy.

This seems to us like more smoke and mirrors courtesy of Arthur Blank.  Let's not forget that he chose to roll the dice with Vick from the beginning.  There were danger signs about Vick's off the field behavior, but Blank chose to give him a $100 million contract.  Blank chose to bring in Bobby Petrino to make the most of Vick.  Blank okayed the idea of getting rid of Matt Schaub.

Blank went "all in" on Michael Vick and went bust.

Now, he is going "all in" on Matt Ryan in hopes that his fan base will forget that he failed when he did the same with Vick.

SPF is on the record that this is a very troublesome pick.

3:30 PM RAIDERS PICK MCFADDEN!

Al Davis knows a home run threat when he sees one.  Teaming McFadden with JaMarcus Russell makes for more than a few interested SEC fans tuning in to Raiders games on Sunday.

Kirk Herbstreit just gave his props to the SEC's defensive talent.  Can ESPN just stop with all the "off the field" issues surrounding McFadden?

3:40 PM DORSEY GOES TO THE CHIEFS!

The word was that the Saints were trying hard to trade up to get  Dorsey.  The Chiefs are making up for trading Jared Allen.  Herm Edwards was part of Tony Dungy's staff in Tampa that built around Warren Sapp.  Dorsey could be even better than Sapp. 

Atlanta is going to regret picking Ryan over him.  SEC football is so much bigger than the Falcon in their market.  They passed over two of the most dominant players in that conference (Dorsey and McFadden - both positions of need for the Falcons) to choose Matt Ryan.  This reminds SPF of Houston passing over Vince Young, a Houston native and Texas star, only to watch him lead their former home town team to the playoffs.

At least the Falcons aren't in the same division as the Raiders and the Chiefs.

3:59 PM THE SAINTS PICK SEDRICK ELLIS

The Saints needed an impact player on defense, and they weren't afraid to give up a third rounder to do so.  It's too bad they didn't get Dorsey, but at least the Saints are staying aggressive.

4:03 PM THE JAGUARS TRADE UP TO #8 AND PICK DERRICK HARVEY

Good For Jax!  They turned the corner last season and now may be honing in on a Super Bowl.  They accomplished two key things with this pick.  First, they found a player to help thier pass rush, and second, they drafted a Gator.  There were quite a few teams that had Harvey high on their board.  People close to Parcells heard that he wanted Harvey, but he couldn't trade down.  Maybe the Dolphins are calling trying to trade Jason Taylor for Harvey.  Kudos to James Harris and Jack Del Rio.

(Jax gave up two 3rd rounders and a 4th to move #26 to #8)

4:13 PM  CINCY PICKS KEITH RIVERS

This Florida native went to USC and was a key part to that dominant college team.  He fits what Marvin Lewis needs - LB depth and good locker room character.  This pick was expected, but it still is a good one.

4:15 PM JEROD MAYO TO NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick knows talent.  Mayo lucks out by going to the Patriots by being part of their LB youth movement.  (Take note - 5 of the first 10 picks are Tribal Fever schools.)

4:20 PM LEODIS MCKELVIN OF TROY GOES TO THE BILLS AT #11

It's nice to see the Sun Belt make a first round showing.   (That's 6 of 10 on the TF pick count!)

4:32 PM THE PANTHERS SURPRISE BY PICKING JONATHAN STEWART

The Panthers were expected to go defense, but there has been a serious run on that side of the ball.  Stewart, if he pans out as the 2nd best RB in the Draft, gives Carolina another offensive weapon.  The Panthers haven't had a balanced offense since Stephen Davis was their feature back.  Rookie RBs can change that right away (just look at Adrian Peterson and Minnesota).

4:40 PM DRAFT MIDPOINT THOUGHTS

First, speeding things up has made this far better to watch.   Kudos to Roger Goodell and his staff.  Besides that, it seems like most teams have done a good job helping themselves.

We are going to harp on the Falcons a little more.  Chris Mortensen reported earlier that many NFL teams had Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, and Brian Brohm rated near Matt Ryan.  If that's the case, it makes one wonder about picking Ryan when the Falcons have so many other needs.

4:47 PM CHRIS WILLIAMS GOES TO THE BEARS; BRANDEN ALBERT TO THE CHIEFS

Chris Williams of Vandy and Branden Albert of Virginia makes it 8 of 15 on the TF pick count.

5:07 PM DOMINIQUE RODGERS-CROMARTIE MAKES TENN ST PROUD; THIS IS ONE WEIRD DRAFT!

Despite a lot of picks that followed expectations, it seems that things are breaking down by need fairly quickly.  Based on all the trades, it seems clear that this year's draft is very thin on impact players.  Teams don't seem to value late 1st rounders much differently that 2nd round picks.

Rodgers-Cromartie makes it 9 of 18 on the TF pick count.

5:25 PM FOX AND HURNEY GOING FOR BROKE IN CAROLINA!

The Panthers might be rivaling the Falcons for putting the most at risk.  They just gave up an awful lot to pick up Jeff Otah at #19.  ESPN's crew basically said that Bill Cowher is waiting in the wings if Fox stumbles.

Owner Jerry Richardson has a clear track record - he fires coaches that have losing seasons.  Even though Fox took them to a Super Bowl, Richardson contemplated firing him after the 2007 season but realized that there was a lack of quality head coaches out there.

Let's hope for the Panthers' fans sake that letting Fox and GM Marty Hurney reach for players doesn't affect the long term prospects of this franchise.

5:30 PM BUCS LOOKING LIKE GRUDEN'S RAIDERS

For the second year in a row, Jon Gruden has let Monte Kiffin make the pick.  Last year it was Gaines Adams.  Now, it is CB Aqib Talib.  Gruden's Raiders had a fast defense and a veteran-laden offense.  Gruden must like what he has on offense and consider Jeff Garcia good to go for another year.

(SPF does wonder why the Bucs wouldn't go with Mike Jenkins of the hometown USF Bulls.)

5:35 PM THE FALCONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THEIR MATT RYAN GAMBLE

Now, they've traded up to draft OT Sam Baker to protect Matt Ryan.  Are we the only sports people out here asking why they are treating Ryan like he's Peyton Manning?  Ryan wasn't even in the top 5 of Heisman voting in his senior year!

Why did the Falcons hire Mike Smith?  He's a defensive coach.  OC Mike Mularkey better do a far better job in Atlanta than he did in Miami.

5:42 PM THE COWBOYS PICK FELIX JONES AS EXPECTED

Attention!  Calling Arthur Blank!  This is how you do things in the Swampland Footprint if you own an NFL team.  Jerry Jones has a premier team, but he never forgets about bringing in players that will appeal to your fan base.

Felix Jones gives the Cowboys a fine replacement for Julius Jones.  More importantly, he allows Jones to keep the Cowboys relevant on a regional level.  Arkansas and Texas will soon begin an annual football series at the new Cowboys stadium.  Jerry doesn't just want Texas.  He wants Arkansas and other key states as well.

Meanwhile, Houston hasn't picked yet thanks to a trade.  When is this team ever going to learn about marketing savvy?

5:55 PM TITANS REPLACE PACMAN WITH CHRIS JOHNSON

Although Titans fans won't like it now, this pick makes a lot of sense.  Chris Johnson is the fastest RB in the draft.  Johnson can return kicks and catch the ball out of the backfield. 

If Alge Crumpler comes back strong, Vince Young will have a lot of versatile weapons.  LenDale White can bruise it up the middle.  Young can throw and run.  Johnson can be like a Reggie Bush with a lot more durability.

Now, where will Kevin Smith, the RB who dominated C-USA go?

6:03 PM COWBOYS TRADE UP TO PICK MIKE JENKINS FROM USF

Another good pick.  Jon Gruden better hope that Talib is considerably better than Jenkins.  USF has a growing fan base in Tampa, and it would have been a very good fan move to pick Jenkins over Talib.

The TF pick count stands at 12 of 25.

6:25 PM THE TEXANS FINALLY MAKE A PICK

The Texans picked up OT Duane Brown from Va Tech.  They need this kind of help for sure, but let's look at the rest of the AFC South: 

The Titans upgraded their offense in the off season by adding OC Mike Heimerdinger, TE Alge Crumpler, and draft pick Chris Johnson to help out Vince Young.  The Titans also got rid of the Pacman Jones distraction.

The Jaguars boldly moved up to draft DE Derrick Harvey.

The Colts are still the team to beat.

The Texans added an O-lineman. 

The question remains - what is the Texans' plan?  This team, though solid, is not going to challenge Tennesee let alone the Colts or the Jaguars next year.  By the time the Colts are going downhill, the Titans and the Jags will still be ahead of Houston.

The Texans remain a team unwilling to risk anything.  From their vanilla uniform and team name to their draft picks, coaches, and front office people, this team does little to move the excitement meter.

6:45 PM END OF FIRST ROUND THOUGHTS

The 2008 Draft just doesn't look all that exciting right now.  There will be many solid players but few stars.  The teams that were patient will probably see a pay off.  Those that tried to reach (yes, we're talking about the Falcons) will likely regret this draft.

The Falcons better hope that Ryan can play.  If not, they have done it to themselves again - placed too much emphasis on a QB that may not be worth the effort when it is all said and done.

The final count was 15 of 31 from TF schools.

7:20 PM LET'S DEFINE "REACH": COMPARING ATLANTA AND MIAMI

Looking at this year's Draft, Atlanta and Miami all had very similar situations.  Both teams have issues all over their respective rosters.  Neither of these teams have the QB position settled.  Each have issues on both sides of the line.

Miami looked at trading out and trading down, but they couldn't find the right value.  Instead, they stayed at the top of both rounds selecting the best offensive lineman in the 1st (Jake Long) and the best defensive lineman in the 2nd (Philip Merling).  The Dolphins also kept player from last year's team who may not fit their long term plans but still have value including Jason Taylor and QB John Beck.

Atlanta blew up their roster cutting Alge Crumpler and Warrick Dunn and trading DeAngelo Hall.   They acquired a mountain of picks and a GM (Tom Dimitroff) whose specialty is college scouting.  Rather than use these picks to create much needed depth, Atlanta decided to make this "the Matt Ryan Show" to appease fans.

All throughout ESPN's draft coverage, Mel Kiper was talking about which players are a "reach" according to his board, but is there any worse reach than drafting a QB high in the draft expecting him to be a franchise player only to watch him be a pedestrian backup?

Joey Harrington, Heath Schuler, Tim Couch, David Carr, Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, Akili Smith are all QBs drafted in the top 5 over the last 10 years whose failure to live up to expectations set their franchise back a good 3 to 5 years.

To sum it up, SPF believes that reaching for a RB or OT late in the first round won't have nearly as much negative impact as reaching on a "franchise" QB who turns out to be little more than a backup.

To further our point, KC had a similar situation as Miami and Atlanta, and they also picked for value reloading their roster.  How KC and Atlanta play and compete over the next two years should tell the story as to which team's approach was the wise.

In the meantime, Arthur Blank can being planning his Matt Ryan tour of Atlanta.  You better do it now before your fans see him flat on his back, struggling as a young starter with an undermanned team.  He won't look nearly as sparkly by then.

FIRST ROUND LOG COMPLETE

 

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