SPF's Week Fourteen Pre-Pregame Show
Posted: Dec 09, 2007SPF has been beating a few drums this year, but one is about letting players play. Coaches coach systems. GMs find players to fit into these systems (or in the case of special players, systems are designed for their talents).
Except for rookies, NFL players are professionals. They know what they are doing. What they do puts food on their table. Trusting in them is the best way to build a winner.
When coaches start to tighten their control on a team, cracks often show. Players become afraid to make mistakes. It will affect their play.
This is a very delicate balance, but it is a balance that the coach must maintain to be successful.
Early Games
Carolina (5-7, 4-2 away)
Jacksonville (8-4, 4-2 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
Although these two teams appear to be heading in different directions, they are actually quite similar. Both of these coaches tend to keep a tight rein on the tiller. For that reason, SPF believes that both teams have been subject to losses that shouldn't have happened.
John Fox can use the excuse of Jake Delhomme's season-ending injury, but Carolina has been pathetic on offense all season. This team has enough playmakers and a good o-line so they shouldn't be so anemic. Entrusting his team in an over-40 QB tells you how conservative Fox is. (It also tells you how bad David Carr truly is.)
This article about Carolina FB Brad Hoover shows how behind the times the Panthers are. If the team led the NFL in rushing it would be a different story, but they aren't. Sticking to old personnel packages in different times is a dangerous and losing game.
For all of Jack Del Rio's claims that the Jaguars "can play with anybody" and that he is getting stellar QB play from David Garrard, SPF doesn't see as rosy of a picture. Yes, Garrard has a QB rating over 100 and has only thrown one interception all season. However, he has also only thrown 11 TDs. The two QBs ahead of Garrard in QB rating are Tom Brady and Tony Romo. Brady has thrown 41 TDs and Romo has thrown 33. Even Ben Roethlisberger as thrown 25 TDs in a run-oriented offense in Pittsburgh.
Garrard's numbers are very similar to Jeff Garcia in Tampa who also has 11 TDs. That's not a good thing. There is a huge difference in offensive talent between Jacksonville and Tampa. Jacksonville arguably has as good of an offensive core as any team in the NFL. They have two effective RBs and a plethora of receiving options. Most all of these players were also selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. Additionally, they play behind a stout o-line.
SPF's conclusion - let's not kid ourselves about Garrard's "stellar" QB play. He doesn't make mistakes, but he doesn't make plays either. That is a huge waste of talent. Byron Leftwich was the playmaker, and Del Rio ran him out of town.
Both teams are also similar in their fan support issues. The Panthers are leading the league in no shows while the Jags are leading in blackouts. At least the Panthers have paper sellouts, something the Jags can't achieve even by tarping over thousands of seats.
In reality, the Panthers are much closer to the Super Bowl than the Jags. Neither will be going this year, but next year the Panthers could be back in the mix. As long as Del Rio is coaching the Jags, the best they can do is the wild card.
Tampa Bay (8-4, 3-3 away)
Houston (5-7, 3-2 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
This game features a battle between two disciples of the WCO - Jon Gruden and Gary Kubiak. SPF has been consistent in its overall concern about the efficacy of this system.
For those unfamiliar with the WCO, here are some great links from ESPN - the history of the WCO, an essay by Steve Young, and an article about the defensive adjustments to the WCO. It is extremely important to realize that these stories were written about 5 years ago. Much has changed in the interim.
To simplify the WCO to the basics, it is a timing-based passing system designed around short passes within 15 yards from the line of scrimmage. The idea was to use the pass to set up the run.
The problem with this system is that NFL defenses have fully evolved to defend it. The WCO looked brilliant at its creation because defenses used to be built around big, powerful d-lineman and LBs. By throwing into their area of the field (within 15 yards), it gave a huge speed advantage to the WRs.
Defenses adjusted in several ways. First, they started drafting and developing smaller, quicker d-lineman and LBs. The only place on the field where defensive bulk matters any more is in the middle at NG or DT and sometimes MLB depending on whether you run the 3-4 or 4-3. This type of personnel allowed DCs to implement "Zone Blitz" schemes (dropping fast DEs into passing lanes while blitzing LBs and DBs) as well as the "Cover Two" (emphasizing each defensive player staying in a specific area so that coverage stays consistent).
We won't complicate it. All we will say about the WCO is that its effectiveness has diminished. If you go back and read this breakdown by three former NFL QBs, here is what they say are critical to the WCO's success - QBs must be "mobile" and "extremely accurate" while WRs must be "sure-handed" and "physical". Well, that's not a lot to ask, huh?
Most QBs coming out of college are one or the other. Same with WRs. Realize also that all of these ESPN pieces were written several years ago. In Steve Young's essay, he predicts that Marty Mornhinweg would be a great developer of QB Joey Harrington. This is more than 5 years ago when Mornhinweg and Harrington were together on the Lions as HC and starting QB. That marriage was dissolved after three seasons with Marty's firing, and Harrington got the boot two seasons later.
The only QBs that can run the WCO effectively today are all old vets like Favre, Garcia, and Matt Hasselbeck. SPF believes that the WCO is simply too much to ask of a QB coming out of college. The speed and nature of today's defense requires incredible accuracy that can only be developed through repetition, something a young QB won't get when he inevitably struggles in his initial NFL starts.
So, this brings us to today's game - Houston vs. Tampa Bay. Tampa is basically in the playoffs because Jon Gruden has a bunch of WCO vets on his offense. Houston is trying to develop Matt Schaub as a WCO QB. They wanted Schaub because he learned the WCO in Atlanta when that team hoped that Michael Vick could thrive in a WCO system. That experiment didn't work which is why Bobby Petrino was hired.
In today's NFL on offense, it is all about punishing the small, quick defenses. Offenses either run it at them to wear them down, or they throw the ball to run them around and keep them on the field for more than two series zapping them of their quickness due to fatigue.
In the end, the WCO is the ultimate in "coaches out of control". It gives all the power to the coaches calling the plays and takes it away from the athletes on the field. Offenses work today by stretching the field beyond 15 yards to combat defenses that have been clogging up that area of the field. This is Martz-ball.
SPF believes teams need to find a great QB with the right physical and mental tools, surround him with good talent, and let them play. That's what is working now. Time to put the WCO to bed. Kubiak is a bust as far as SPF is concerned and Gruden is lucky because DC Monte Kiffin has kept the defense extremely stout.
This game will be an interesting matchup as a study of today's WCO in the NFL. However, it likely won't be a high-scoring one.
St. Louis (3-9, 2-4 away)
Cincinnati (4-8, 3-3 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
In the Cincy Post, an article breaks down the similarities between these two teams. Both finished at 8-8 last season expecting to make the playoffs this year, but instead dug deeps holes that doomed them to another season on the outside looking in.
The Bengals appear to have a plan. Despite their poor season, the team has a nucleus of good players. Their offense is still explosive, and their defense is improving. With a few tweaks, this team should be back in contention. 2007 was a wake up call for Marvin Lewis. SPF predicts he will answer the call.
The Rams are another story. This team has never really moved into St Louis, still keeping an operating in LA. They were very fortunate to find Mike Martz at the very moment that defenses were learning how to attack the WCO. Martz implemented old "spread the field" passing techniques that set the NFL on fire.
Martz and the Rams upper brass were ultimately incompatible so the team sought out Scott Linehan in hopes that his offensive style would bring the Rams back into Super Bowl contention. Instead, the Rams started 0-8, Linehan lost his vets on offense either to injury or to indifference.
Linehan is getting a vote of confidence from John Shaw, who is still based in LA where the Rams used to live. Meanwhile, QB Marc Bulger is still sitting out from his concussion suffered two weeks back. Bryan Burwell hits the nail on the head by wondering whether any of this really secures another season for Linehan.
Memo to Shaw - go get Al Saunders from the Redskins. Either replace Linehan with him or pay him a king's ransom to be his OC. Saunders will regain the confidence of your high-priced offensive vets.
Get a plan soon because Brock Berlin isn't scaring anyone at QB.
San Diego (7-5, 2-4 away)
Tennessee (7-5, 4-2 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
This is a critical game for the Titans. They lost a step from their 6-2 start, but they are still a potential playoff team. Vince Young needs some playoff action to continue his growth as an NFL QB.
At this point in the season, this is a playoff game for the Titans. They need to show that they can beat other playoff caliber teams especially when they are playing at home.
The Titans will see quickly whether their 7th-ranked defense can stand up to LaDainian Tomlinson. They must if they expect to win this key skirmish.
Dallas (11-1, 5-0 away)
Detroit (6-6, 4-2 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
No team has seen the benefits of letting loose than this year's Cowboys. Coach Wade Phillips has let his group of personalities (see TO) let it all hang out. Whereas Parcells would rip his players every mistake, Phillips encourages players to take chances. Now this team is playing with confidence.
Today's game in Detroit is a rematch of last year's season ender in which the Lions surprised the Cowboys at home. Don't expect that this time. The Lions have already been blown out by each and every NFC East team they have faced.
It should be no different after kickoff today.
Miami (0-12, 0-6 away)
Buffalo (6-6, 3-3 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
The Dolphins have the worst coaching situation in the NFL right now. It is at the heart of their 0-12 start. Cam Cameron has completely lost his team. (We covered this in this week's T.I Poll piece.) The Miami Herald has a great story today that fully exposes the issue. All you need is this one quote from CB Andre Goodman to see Cam's issues with his players, "[Cam]'s pretty good at reaching out and listening and asking what we think, but I don't know where it goes from there.''
Huizenga's silence says it all. Cam will be gone by season's end. SPF only hopes that Huizenga will be much wiser about how he cleans house for 2008.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis (10-2, 5-1 away)
Baltimore (4-8, 3-3 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
Baltimore put a scare into the Pats, and Brian Billick is fighting for his coaching life. This is a very good test for the Colts to see if they can keep the momentum that they found against the Jags at home last week.
Monday Night
New Orleans (5-7, 3-3 away)
Atlanta (3-9, 2-4 home)
NFL Films Video Preview
This is a battle of two "offensive geniuses." Sean Payton did it all in the NFL as an OC and HC. Bobby Petrino had a little pro experience, but most of his time has been spent at the college level.
This week, Atlanta fans get a full portion of Chris Redman, a Petrino-disciple from Louisville, under center. Maybe everyone will finally see what Petrino's offense will look like at the NFL-level with a competent QB running the show. SPF has been saying all season that Joey Harrington is a loser. Petrino could only mask his problem for so long. Harrington is just another name in the WCO graveyard of young QBs.
The Saints are really starting to crumble around Payton. He lost Deuce McAllister at the beginning of the season. Now, it looks like Reggie Bush may be done for the year.
This article shows the growing discontent amongst Saints fans about Payton. Jim Henderson, longtime sports director at WWL-TV, sums it up:
Last year, Sean pushed all the right buttons. So many things conspired to make that season what it was -- draft-day trade, free-agent pickups, selections in the draft, play-calling, lack of serious injuries. This year it's like Sean can't catch a break. Almost everything he's tried has seemed to fail. The motivational tactics have failed. They've got nothing out of this draft. The free agents, apart from Eric Johnson, can't get on the field a lot. The trade for (kicker) Olindo Mare hasn't paid off. All these things that fell into place last year haven't this year.
It's almost like the law of averages. Last year they batted nearly 1.000. This year they might be batting .200.
SPF's storyline for this year's Saints was the team's longtime battles with inconsistency. Based on the quote above, it is impossible to tell whether last year was an aberration, or this year is.
The only way to tell might be finishing at 9-7 or 8-8. Anything less will have the New Orleans fanbase staying in frustration mode during the offseason.
related tags
Southern Pro Football,Urban,
Coastal,
River,
New Orleans,
Nashville,
Miami,
Jacksonville,
Atlanta,
Texas,
Tennessee,
North Carolina,
Missouri,
Louisiana,
Georgia,
Florida,
Sports,
Comments
Please login or you can
If you aren't registered, Register Now to start leaving comments.