SPF T.I. Poll (Week Thirteen)

Coaching changes.  They happen every year even though it seems as though jobs are more than safe.  Changes are usually made because the coach no longer has the confidence of the fans.  Once that occurs, the owner is left with little choice.

As long term, one market players like Brett Favre become more and more rare, coaches are the face of an NFL franchise.

This week is a good time to start getting a sense of who might be making his way out the door come 2008.  A shaky coach often makes for a shaky relationship with the fans.

Let's look at last week's "Team Identity" Poll:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Washington Redskins
5. Tennessee Titans
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Houston Texans
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Cincinnati Bengals
10. St Louis Rams
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Carolina Panthers

 On to this week's:

1. Dallas Cowboys - The NFL Network has one of this year's premiere matchups.  Certainly, the Cowboys hosting the Packers with both teams at 10-1 is the NFC game of the year so far.  It's too bad that so few people will be able to see it. 

Wade Phillips has been a revelation.  He was a low level retread when hired, but he has so far been the NFL's version of Joe Torre, an experienced and level-headed manager of people who only needed a great roster to show his true worth.

The Cowboys do need to win tonight, and they should.  Green Bay has largely been winning with mirrors.

2. Indianapolis Colts - This franchise is as stable as they come from owner to GM to head coach to QB.  They have a huge game against Jacksonville that can wrap up the AFC South for them.

3. Tennessee Titans - Jeff Fisher is the soul of this team.   Vince Young is the face.  Yes, they are on a losing streak, but the Titans have a bright future ahead.  Young just needs to continue to develop.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs - Even though the Bucs are in the top 4 and have been near the top of the Poll all year, there are troubling signs.  Jon Gruden brought Tampa its only Super Bowl, but the fans have been waiting for at least one dominant year that has yet to come.  Now, the worst fears have happened with Jeff Garcia being knocked out for most of last week's game and this week's critical matchup with the Saints.

Lucky for the Bucs, it seems that the NFC South is in hand.  There final five games have them playing mostly teams with losing records.  Another division title should quell any Gruden haters.

Still, Gruden's reliance on old QBs and his inability to find a good backup QB have put off certain Bucs fans. 

If Monte Kiffin did leave to coach Nebraska, that might doom Gruden's long term future with the Bucs.  Gruden should be thankful that this likely won't happen.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags have been in a "crossroads" season all year.  Winning in Indy could vault the Jags into the Super Bowl discussion.  Last week's win against the Chargers gave hope that Jack Del Rio has all the pieces clicking.

Unfortunately, it will all go away in an instant if the Jags lose to the Colts.  This franchise needs to win the AFC South for its long term survival in the market.  Going back to 2005 when owner Wayne Weaver covered up seats to assure sellouts, this franchise has been heading in the wrong direction. 

This 2005 article tried to put the seat covering move in the best light, but history sure hasn't born it out.  That move has backfired this season with a string of blackouts.  The fans are staying away until the Jags show that they are a true contender since Jag Nation has never fully embraced Del Rio.

It can all change with this key win.

6. New Orleans Saints - This is where things start to get a little murky.  All signs point to Sean Payton's return, but the Saints have underwhelmed this year.  Without the emotion and last place schedule to help them, the Saints have struggled to find consistency on offense.

The Saints must win 4 of their last 5 including this week's game against Tampa to keep the Payton regime on solid ground.

7. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals finally showed up and showed off a little.  They had a complete game as they dominated the Titans.  SPF is happy to see Carson Palmer finally get to throw the ball around a little.

This week's game in Pittsburgh could be a great way to set the tone for next year.  Marvin Lewis needs a few more quality wins to get some momentum moving in his direction.

8. Miami Dolphins - Ok, Cam.  Here's your chance to get a win.  The Jets aren't good and you play them at home.  Plus, you've been close the last few weeks.

SPF thinks that Cam has to go no matter what.  There just is too much baggage with this guy already.  Miami is not a market that will quickly forget a coach that lost his first 11 games out of the gate.

9. Atlanta Falcons - The Bobby Petrino watch has started.  Saban defined the move - go from the pros to a big paying college gig.  Despite the constant trashing of him by the AJC, Petrino would be a hot commodity in the SEC or the ACC. 

The good news for Falcons' fans is that Arthur Blank seems committed to Petrino.  That is wise.  Petrino's experience at the NFL level and his drive to win could finally give the Falcons what they have never had - a top level coach.

10. Houston Texans - Mike Sherman to Texas A&M.  That might not seem like a big deal, but Sherman brought HC experience to Gary Kubiak's Houston staff.  Losing him is not  a good thing for a team that appears to be on the edge of success or on the brink of another meltdown.

Losing to the Browns put the Texans out of playoff contention.  That isn't totally surprising, but it is troubling to see teams like Cleveland moving past the Texans.  When will it be there time?  Will it happen with Kubiak at the helm?

The bigger question is how long will owner Bob McNair accept his team continuing to miss the playoffs?

11. St Louis Rams - The Scott Linehan era is over, at least according to Bernie Miklasz.  He's right in pointing out that the Rams need to make a change to keep the fans interested.  They are blacking out games in St Louis.  That is a very bad sign.

The Rams have too many top level offensive players to struggle as they have.  They need to find a veteran coach who can get them back in the hunt.  The NFC West is horrible.  It won't take much to get this team back to the playoffs.

12. Carolina Panthers - John Fox might have his injured QB's support, but he doesn't have the fans' support.  Owner Jerry Richardson hasn't ever allowed a coach that finishes with less than a 7-9 record to return for another year.  SPF doesn't expect that Fox will either.

This isn't about wins and losses as it is about losing too many home games and losing home fans in the process.  The roster has talent.  It is time to let someone else guide it.  Fox will find another home somewhere else, but his time in Carolina appears to be over.

13. Washington Redskins - Sean Taylor's death was a huge tragedy.  It also exemplified the disarray of the Redskins.  Who is the team leader?  Where is this franchise headed? 

The Redskins have given away game after game this season.  They have to make a change at the HC level, but that will require finding a graceful exit for the legendary Joe Gibbs. 

No team wiht such a glorious history seems as rudderless as the Redskins right now.

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