Swampland:SPF T.I. Poll (Week Ten)

SPF T.I. Poll (Week Ten)

Posted: Nov 07, 2007

Everyone knows that football is the dominant sport in the Footprint, but it has always been college dominating the pro variety. The goal of SPF's "Team Identity Poll" is to gauge the connection of each team to their fans.

This week, two different studies were done, one was formal while the other was more informal, regarding teams connection with their markets.

The first is a ranking of the fan experience at each of the respective stadiums in the NFL. The categories they based it on Tickets (price and availability), Food & Souvenirs, Accessibility, Tailgating, Team, and Stadium Atmosphere.

Of the 32 teams, here is how the SPF teams ranked:

8. Colts - RCA Dome
9. Titans - LP Field
10. Panthers - Bank of Amer. Stadium
12. Jaguars - Municipal Stadium
14. Texans - Reliant Stadium
17. Buccaneers - Raymond James Stadium
18. Saints - Louisiana Superdome
19. Bengals - Paul Brown Stadium
23. Dolphins - Dolphin Stadium
26. Cowboys - Texas Stadium
27. Rams - Edward Jones Dome
28. Redskins - FedEx Field
29. Falcons - Georgia Dome

(you can view SI.COM's Full rankings)

The other much more scientific study was done by Turnkey, a sports marketing firm. Their study looked at all professional sports teams as brands and then gauged each team's brand strength within their home market.

Out of 122 teams studied, here's how the SPF teams ranked:

3. Indianapolis Colts
7. New Orleans Saints
16. Carolina Panthers
25. Tennessee Titans
28. Dallas Cowboys
30. Cincinnati Bengals
36. Jacksonville Jaguars
41. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
42. Miami Dolphins
51. St Louis Rams
54. Atlanta Falcons
63. Washington Redskins
78. Houston Texans

Keep in mind that this study can get skewed by the relative strength of the team's performance over the last few years as well as the competition within each market. New York teams, for example, got lower grades across the boards because there are so many pro teams in that market. That would, for example, help the Jaguars tremendously since they are the only pro team in Jacksonville.

The study also reinforces that "pride in place" is a critical factor. Cities that have little or no migration usually have stronger connections to their teams. Since the Footprint is growing faster than any other region in the country, this factor hurts our teams across the board.

Additionally, as Swampland Sports has discussed before in its piece entitled The Challenge of Pro Sports in South, the South is very different than the north in how its people connect with big cities. Simply put, the South was first settled as a rural area, and migration went to urban areas later upon the advent of the industrial age. This is in direct opposition to cities like NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore that were some of the first settlements of that part of the world and have remained the economic and cultural points of their respective states.

Most importantly, pro sports in the South have to have a regional appeal which the Turnkey study did not take into account because the Footprint has more population spread out in more urban markets unlike the northeast or midwest that are dominated by a handful of large markets. (When they did look at the top ten teams with out of market followings the Dallas Cowboys were #2 behind the New York Yankees. The only other SPF team in the top ten was the Super Bowl Champion Colts at #8.)

Keeping that in mind, there are things from both of these studies that SPF can apply to this week's T.I. Poll, especially as things are starting to settle out. Every team has played at least eight games so the overall focus is much clearer for all teams.

Let's take a quick look at last week's poll:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Washington Redskins
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Tampa Bay Bucs
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Cincinnati Bengals
11. Houston Texans
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. St Louis Rams

Now, here's this week's:

1. Dallas Cowboys - The Boys are back in the top spot all by their lonesome. They have but one loss (against the vaunted Pats), but this is a better team since that point. Their win against the Eagles in Philly was a thing of beauty according to Randy Galloway. We agree.

It's beyond just winning. Things in Cowboy country feel like they should feel. Jim Reeves column explains it best - the connection that Cowboys fans have with their team is back. Reeves points out how Bill Parcells was a tease for Cowboys fans - lots of meaningless wins without any playoff success. Worse than that, Parcells' career glory came outside of his time in Dallas. Having him coach the team to lesser results than he had accomplished elsewhere left the Cowboy faithful feeling like an also-ran team. This isn't good on the "identity" scale.

It has taken Jerry Jones a long time to get here, but he has finally built a great team on his own without the shadow of Jimmy Johnson.

Looking at both of the studies above, Jerry Jones has addressed both of the issues. First, the team is winning with flair which has made them far more popular within the Dallas market. Addtionally, the Cowboys have a new stadium under construction right now that will be the class of the NFL.

2. Indianapolis Colts - At the beginning of the season, SPF commended the Colts for the way that they've become a national team by doing things the old fashioned way - drafting a great QB and allowing him to develop in such a way that he embodies the team's identity. The Colts definitely justify the high rankings that we ahve given them as you look at how high the team and their stadium rank on both of the two studies above.

The Colts did drop this week, but that's because the T.I. Poll is dynamic, not static. Their loss loss to the Patriots at home had to have some negative impact. It might not last but it will through this week at least.

The Colts have nothing to be ashamed of. They came within a couple of plays of beating the Patriots. However, SPF can't deny a few troubling signs.

First, Peyton Manning's history has been filled with bad plays at big moments. Everything is not on him, but he did fumble at a key point in the game. He was snippy in his press conference afterward which tells you that he took this loss fairly hard. (Even the Indy Star's Bob Kravitz sounds a bit snippy and defensive in his column after the game.)

Second, people are starting to question Tony Dungy again. We wouldn't call it doubt, but Dungy has done things his own way for a long time. The issue now is how he handles special teams.

For the first time this season, the Colts are playing after a loss. SPF has little doubt that they will rebound well.

3. Tennessee Titans - At the beginning of the season, SPF mused about the potential of the Titans. This team had previously reached a peak with its near Super Bowl win back during the McNair era. Under Vince Young as a rookie last season, there were potential signs of greatness to come.

So far, this season has been a huge success. The Titans have two losses - a close one to Indy and a close one to Tampa in which Vince Young was hurt during the first half. Today their 6-2 record puts them as the third best team in the AFC.

Jacksonville comes to town this weekend, and Tennessee has a chance to sweep the season series against the Jags. The Titans can put even more distance between themselves and the rest of the conference.

(The Titans also came up big in both of the studies above. Considering that they were a relocated team in a young market with very strong college football ties, their success should be studied closely.)

4. Washington Redskins - Why is Al Saunders on this staff? Clearly, he and Joe Gibbs don't see eye to eye. The Skins got blown out by NE and squeaked by the lowly Jets, but Joe Gibbs is happy because they got back to running the ball. Reading Michael Wilbon's column shows why the Redskins are loved, but it also shows a complete misunderstanding of the situation.

Yes, it was important to bounce back after the blowout loss to the Pats, but the Jets should have been a much easier win. Gibbs was so happy after the win, it looks as though Saunders will be mothballed for the rest of the season again, but is this the answer long term?

The studies above show some serious erosion with the Redskins identity. The Carolinas were always a Redskins stronghold, and the Panthers have really begun to connect there.

Here's the problem. SPF loves Joe Gibbs and would support a full and complete return to his smash mouth style. However, the man is old and can't coach much beyond a year or two. Also, the NFL's style presently rewards teams with wide open offenses. Teams that don't take advantage of this are domming themselves. The Redskins have a lot of offensive weapons, but they just aren't using them implementing Gibbs' style.

The Redskins are definitely a team to watch this year and beyond. There is even talk of moving the Redskins back to DC since they currently play in suburban Maryland. Clearly, owner Daniel Synder is well aware of some of the challenges ahead.

5. New Orleans Saints - The Saints are back to .500 with their blowout win over the Jags. This team deserves a ton of credit for how they handled their early season adversity. Last season, the Saints had the benefit of a last place schedule, a new exciting rookie (Reggie Bush), and the emotion of the Saints returning home after Katrina. This season the team enjoyed none of those benefits, lost Deuce McAllister, and also dug an 0-4 hole for themselves.

The Saints went back to the drawing board and came up with a new offensive plan. Shredding the supposedly vaunted Jags defense for over 500 yards of offense should show the Saints that they are a team that is for real.

(Special kudos to the Saints for their strong showing in the two studies. There is little doubt that all the Saints need to be one of SPF's top T.I. teams is to become a more consistent winner. This season could be the beginning of that.)

6. Tampa Bay Bucs - Tampa has become a fine sports market, so it is surprising to see that the Bucs don't rate higher on the Turnkey study. SPF thinks that it has a lot to do with the market's mixed feelings about Gruden, the man who has become the face of the franchise.

The Bucs have been a little too similar to the Redskins this season. They are lead by a coach known for offense who now seems far more interested in winning 13-10 ballgames. Both Joe Henderson and Roy Cummings sound like the Washington press, lauding the Bucs for winning no matter how ugly.

There is one big difference - Tampa football fans like wide open offenses that score. This has always been the love-hate relationship between Bucs fans and Jon Gruden. Gruden squeezed just enough offense out of Dungy's Bucs to win a Super Bowl, and he is a hometown boy. That buys him a lot because without those two things on his resume Bucs fans would have petitioned for his ouster long ago.

SPF is going to start beating this dead horse theme - the West Coast Offense is over. Gruden, Shanahan, and Holmgren need to adjust quickly to this fact. NFL defenses have evolved into smaller, faster units that take away every advantage that the WCO used to give. The only way it works now is if your team's personnel is so weel-versed in the offense that they can run it with precision. The problem there is that those players are all older and prone to injury. That's the Bucs dilemma.

SPF predicts that unless Gruden abandons the WCO and starts to spread the field, his days in Tampa will be numbered, whether this year or the next. The Bucs, sadly, just aren't very interesting. The Saints are hot on their heels as well, and we doubt they can hang on despite their current place at the top of the NFC South heap.

7. Miami Dolphins - LeBatard is right - not starting Beck is just Cam saving his own skin. This cat and mouse game with Beck allows Cameron to hold one of his few high cards close to the vest. His thinking must be - "if I don't start Beck, I can use his potential as a way to stay around for next season." Owner Wayne Huizenga should hold this against him rather than use it in his favor.

There is some truth that you risk losing a veteran team by starting a rookie at QB. The vets want to win and rookie QBs rarely do. However, the reality of the Dolphins is that they are winless. The vets were lost when Chris Chambers was traded to San Diego. The only vets that matter are Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, and they are loyal to the Dolphins already as anyone can see from this article. If anything, the Dolphins should be shutting Thomas down for the season.

The studies above also show a bigger problem for the Dolphins. Huizenga is a businessman at heart, and south Florida is all about real estate. The Dolphins have always been a real estate play ever since previous owner Joe Robbie built his own stadium. Huizenga refurbished it last year to ensure its inclusion in the regular Sper Bowl rotation. Huizenga also owns much of the ancillary land around Dolphin Stadium.

SPF has pointed out tie and again that all of these real estate machinations has left the Dolphins as a team as an afterthought. The team has had no real success since the Marino years which were the last years of the Shula era. The Shula era has defined this franchise.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the Shula legacy is becoming an embarrassment. While Miami as a city has redefined itself as young and vibrant over the last decade shedding its retiree image, but recent comment by Don Shula regarding the Patriots and how they should have an asterisk if they finish undefeated has elicited groans from the sports world at large.

The fact that Greg Cote defended Shula's embarrassing comments shows how insulated the south Florida market has become. Nick Saban truly was the perfect tonic for this franchise just as he has been for the Crimson Tide. Saban's self-centered demeanor is exactly what a team needs when they are trapped by the shadow of their own history.

(As an aside, SPF wonders why no one is mentioning the obvious. The Pats were "caught" after a week one blowout of the hapless Jets, a team they would have beaten regardless. Therefore, the only win that can be in question is the one against the Jets. After the Pats got in trouble, one can assume that the NFL is watching them like a hawk. If anything, it validates their greatness knowing that the team is under this kind of scrutiny and they are still blowing other teams out.

Cote's Barry Bonds comparisons similarly don't hold water because Bonds was accused of cheating during his home run crown run. We guess the fact that no one is bothering to point this out is because they don't even consider it worth mentioning. No one wants to embarrass Don "The Don" Shula because he is a legend, after all.)

"The Don" needs to go away. He can't be the face for the Dolphins because he refuses to step aside. He will always quietly undermine anyone who he sees affecting his legacy.

What identity does Miami want - grumpy old men? If not, it is time to take a page from the Jerry Jones handbook. Jones' decision to fire Tom Landry on the spot looks better and better as time goes on.

(Oh yeah, the Dolphins ranked very poorly on both scales. Considering that they reside in one of the few Footprint markets that doesn't need outside help, they should be worried.)

8. Carolina Panthers - Perhaps no team represents the change in the NFL more than the Panthers. Their plan of having an adequate offense with a great defense has flopped miserably. The team is doing quite well in the studies above which shows that the Carolina market has really taken to the NFL.

However, this year's team is in an identity crisis. Scott Fowler's column this week does another musically great job of pointing this out. As team's embrace the wide open offenses, defense can't be expected to be as effective. Teams need good offenses to balance this out.

The Panthers offense is a joke, and its ineffectiveness compounds the defense's problems by keeping them on the field too long. 43 year old Vinny Testaverde cannot be your answer at QB unless the question is "what happened to the Panthers' offense this year?"

Dan Morgan will likely never be an effective player again as he misses yet another season.

The fact is this - the Panthers have lost in back to back weeks to a great offensive team (the Colts) and a great defensive team (the Titans). They are good enough to beat the bad teams, but they can't run with the good ones.

Changes will likely be afoot in the off season.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars - Much like the Panthers, the Jaguars can't beat good offensive teams (losses to Colts and Saints) or good defensive teams (home loss to Titans). Now, they have off the field problems to deal with. Gene Frenette finally slams the team, but he still defends Del Rio.

Look, SPF knows that Del Rio is a decent X's and O's guy, but he isn't the right guy for the Jax market. He's got the Jaguars on a steady path to mediocrity. The Colts are way ahead of them, and if the Titans win at home against them on Sunday, they are also behind the Titans who are younger and more dynamic.

Lost in their debacle in New Orleans was another flash of offensive playmaking WR Reggie Wiliams caught an 80 yard bomb. Last week, it was the other Del Rio whipping boy, Matt Jones, catching one.

The Jags have all the potential to spread the field and attack opposing defenses, but Del Rio doesn't like that approach.

SPF Suggestion: Fire Del Rio and hire Mike Martz this off season since Martz will likely never return to St Louis where he belongs. Martz will immediately turn around the sagging Jags offense. It is a perfect fit.

10. Atlanta Falcons - "The draft is not an exact science, but in my naive thinking, there are two things we need to focus on: character and scheme fit." Those are the words of Rich McKay from a year ago, pre-Vick scandal. That tells a large story as to why the Falcons are in the mess they are in. Everything revolved around Vick, from drafting to coaching. Now, he is gone, likely never to return in a Falcons uniform.

Rich McKay, despite his recent troubles, is a good GM with a solid eye for marketing. The Falcons can come back, if and only if, McKay fully realizes that Bobby Petrino is a great asset on his own, not just the guy who never got a chance to turn Michael Vick into a consistent winner.

Petrino has been unafraid to challenge players, cutting them if necessary. In the process, he has the Falcons competing. The Falcons rank low on both studies, but they have all kinds of ability to move up just like the Saints. A good coach can bring the consistency that this team has never enjoyed.

The Falcons play the Panthers this weekend. A win would go a long way towards confirming Petrino's contributions to perhaps the most difficult season of transition any NFL team has had to make in recent years.

11. Cincinnati Bengals - Bengals owner Mike Brown is the reverse Jim Irsay. Irsay's father was one of the worst owners ever. He moved the Colts from Baltimore to Indy in the middle of the night. He also had a penchant for running out subpar teams due to a cheap wallet. He also must have been tough on his son Jim making him start off as a ball boy and working his way up the ladder. In the process, young Irsay learned about all the little things that make a team great. The Colts are a premier franchise because of Jim Irsay.

Mike Brown is the son of football legend, Paul Brown. While father Paul might have been the greatest football coach ever, successfully founding two NFL teams in Ohio, son Mike has lived too insulated a life in his father's shadow to realize that his organization is woefully underdeveloped.

SPF has made the point before about the Bengals success under Marvin Lewis and its recent failures. This all goes back to the three big changes in the NFL - larger salary caps, rules changes favoring WRs, and stronger disciplining of off the field player issues.

The Bengals had an upsurge under Lewis initially because he was able to find good players with sketchy reputations and make them better. That was a great way to find value before the cap went up. Now, those players will kill you. WR Chris Henry is in trouble again and should be cut. The problem is that Henry is an important part of the offense.

Additionally, the Bengals lack of any front office left them vulnerable to these league-wide changes. They couldn't react fast enough. I'm sure Lewis believed that he could "coach up" his bad seed players which left him blind to their overall negative effect on the team.

The good news for the Bengals is that the team still has a strong core of talent. They just need to weed out the problem players and spend some money (correctly) in the off season. They have a great offense that can thrive under the new rules.

The Bengals have the ability to be a marque franchise just like the Colts. The studies show that. They just need Brown to copy Jim Irsay a little more.

12. Houston Texans - Richard Justice compliments Kubiak for being a consistent and calm coach, but the Texans are still off course. Houston is a great market, and the Texans have one of the NFL's best stadiums. The product on the field is depressing. The Texans were the lowest rated SPF team in the Turnkey scale. That is a huge problem.

The Texans need to look at Miami and realize that long periods of losing can be disasterous to great franchises. They can be crippling to expansion teams.

The solution is pretty easy - hire Bill Parcells. I'm sure he'd love to show Jerry Jones a thing or two. Parcells is never a long term solution, but he will get the most out of a team's roster. It is impossible to know what the Texans have since they have never won. Changing the culture of losing is well beyond the grasp of a first time head coach like Gary Kubiak.

We've already hit the WCO theme. It's dead, but Kubiak doesn't know it yet.

Kubiak is a fine guy as Justice says, but that probably makes him a better candidate for the Texas A&M job, his alma mater. In fact, we're starting the rumor now because it makes so much sense.

Kubiak to the Aggies, and Parcells to the Texans. Yee haw!

13. St Louis Rams - Jeff Gordon is playing the injury card, but the Rams should be better. Either their offensive weapons are good or they are not. St. Louis was the only market with an NFL team thatthe NFL didn't dominate. MLB is more popular than the NFL in St Louis.

St Louis is a great sports market, but the NFL has tried their patience. First, they lost their team to Arizona. Next, the current ownership dismantled a perennial playoff team by firing Mike Martz.

SPF expects that Scott Linehan will be back. Linehan, like Jack Del Rio, is a fine coach, but St Louis needs a dynamic coach just like Jacksonville. Too bad, they already let one go.

Swampland.com

SPF T.I. Poll (Week Ten)

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